Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study

As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalised estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n=5,520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with the public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. These include: using predominantly percentages when communicating the absolute risk, but also providing, for balance, a format which conveys a contrasting (higher) perception of risk (expected frequency out of 10,000); using a visual linear scale cut at an appropriate point to illustrate the maximum risk, explained through an illustrative ‘persona’ who might face that highest level of risk; and providing context to the absolute risk through presenting a range of other ‘personas’ illustrating people who would face risks of a wide range of different levels. These ‘personas’ should have their major risk factors (age, existing health conditions) described. By contrast, giving people absolute likelihoods of other risks they face in an attempt to add context was considered less helpful

Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study.

As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalized estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n = 5520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with the public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. These include: using predominantly percentages when communicating the absolute risk, but also providing, for balance, a format which conveys a contrasting (higher) perception of risk (expected frequency out of 10 000); using a visual linear scale cut at an appropriate point to illustrate the maximum risk, explained through an illustrative 'persona' who might face that highest level of risk; and providing context to the absolute risk through presenting a range of other 'personas' illustrating people who would face risks of a wide range of different levels. These 'personas' should have their major risk factors (age, existing health conditions) described. By contrast, giving people absolute likelihoods of other risks they face in an attempt to add context was considered less helpful. We note that observed effect sizes generally were small. However, even small effects are meaningful and relevant when scaled up to population levels

Symmetries of Abelian Orbifolds

Using the Polya Enumeration Theorem, we count with particular attention to C^3/Gamma up to C^6/Gamma, abelian orbifolds in various dimensions which are invariant under cycles of the permutation group S_D. This produces a collection of multiplicative sequences, one for each cycle in the Cycle Index of the permutation group. A multiplicative sequence is controlled by its values on prime numbers and their pure powers. Therefore, we pay particular attention to orbifolds of the form C^D/Gamma where the order of Gamma is p^alpha. We propose a generalization of these sequences for any D and any p.Comment: 75 pages, 13 figures, 30 table

Predictive modeling of die filling of the pharmaceutical granules using the flexible neural tree

In this work, a computational intelligence (CI) technique named flexible neural tree (FNT) was developed to predict die filling performance of pharmaceutical granules and to identify significant die filling process variables. FNT resembles feedforward neural network, which creates a tree-like structure by using genetic programming. To improve accuracy, FNT parameters were optimized by using differential evolution algorithm. The performance of the FNT-based CI model was evaluated and compared with other CI techniques: multilayer perceptron, Gaussian process regression, and reduced error pruning tree. The accuracy of the CI model was evaluated experimentally using die filling as a case study. The die filling experiments were performed using a model shoe system and three different grades of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) powders (MCC PH 101, MCC PH 102, and MCC DG). The feed powders were roll-compacted and milled into granules. The granules were then sieved into samples of various size classes. The mass of granules deposited into the die at different shoe speeds was measured. From these experiments, a dataset consisting true density, mean diameter (d50), granule size, and shoe speed as the inputs and the deposited mass as the output was generated. Cross-validation (CV) methods such as 10FCV and 5x2FCV were applied to develop and to validate the predictive models. It was found that the FNT-based CI model (for both CV methods) performed much better than other CI models. Additionally, it was observed that process variables such as the granule size and the shoe speed had a higher impact on the predictability than that of the powder property such as d50. Furthermore, validation of model prediction with experimental data showed that the die filling behavior of coarse granules could be better predicted than that of fine granules

High Energy Neutrinos from Quasars

We review and clarify the assumptions of our basic model for neutrino production in the cores of quasars, as well as those modifications to the model subsequently made by other workers. We also present a revised estimate of the neutrino background flux and spectrum obtained using more recent empirical studies of quasars and their evolution. We compare our results with other thoeretical calculations and experimental upper limits on the AGN neutrino background flux. We also estimate possible neutrino fluxes from the jets of blazars detected recently by the EGRET experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. We discuss the theoretical implications of these estimates.Comment: 14 pg., ps file (includes figures), To be published in Space Science Review

Design of a combinatorial DNA microarray for protein-DNA interaction studies

BACKGROUND: Discovery of precise specificity of transcription factors is an important step on the way to understanding the complex mechanisms of gene regulation in eukaryotes. Recently, double-stranded protein-binding microarrays were developed as a potentially scalable approach to tackle transcription factor binding site identification. RESULTS: Here we present an algorithmic approach to experimental design of a microarray that allows for testing full specificity of a transcription factor binding to all possible DNA binding sites of a given length, with optimally efficient use of the array. This design is universal, works for any factor that binds a sequence motif and is not species-specific. Furthermore, simulation results show that data produced with the designed arrays is easier to analyze and would result in more precise identification of binding sites. CONCLUSION: In this study, we present a design of a double stranded DNA microarray for protein-DNA interaction studies and show that our algorithm allows optimally efficient use of the arrays for this purpose. We believe such a design will prove useful for transcription factor binding site identification and other biological problems

Selective expansion of viral variants following experimental transmission of a reconstituted feline immunodeficiency virus quasispecies

Following long-term infection with virus derived from the pathogenic GL8 molecular clone of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), a range of viral variants emerged with distinct modes of interaction with the viral receptors CD134 and CXCR4, and sensitivities to neutralizing antibodies. In order to assess whether this viral diversity would be maintained following subsequent transmission, a synthetic quasispecies was reconstituted comprising molecular clones bearing envs from six viral variants and its replicative capacity compared in vivo with a clonal preparation of the parent virus. Infection with either clonal (Group 1) or diverse (Group 2) challenge viruses, resulted in a reduction in CD4+ lymphocytes and an increase in CD8+ lymphocytes. Proviral loads were similar in both study groups, peaking by 10 weeks post-infection, a higher plateau (set-point) being achieved and maintained in study Group 1. Marked differences in the ability of individual viral variants to replicate were noted in Group 2; those most similar to GL8 achieved higher viral loads while variants such as the chimaeras bearing the B14 and B28 Envs grew less well. The defective replication of these variants was not due to suppression by the humoral immune response as virus neutralising antibodies were not elicited within the study period. Similarly, although potent cellular immune responses were detected against determinants in Env, no qualitative differences were revealed between animals infected with either the clonal or the diverse inocula. However, in vitro studies indicated that the reduced replicative capacity of variants B14 and B28 in vivo was associated with altered interactions between the viruses and the viral receptor and co-receptor. The data suggest that viral variants with GL8-like characteristics have an early, replicative advantage and should provide the focus for future vaccine development

Do adults with high functioning autism or Asperger Syndrome differ in empathy and emotion recognition?

The present study examined whether adults with high functioning autism (HFA) showed greater difficulties in (i) their self-reported ability to empathise with others and/or (ii) their ability to read mental states in others’ eyes than adults with Asperger syndrome (AS). The Empathy Quotient (EQ) and ‘Reading the Mind in the Eyes’ Test (Eyes Test) were compared in 43 adults with AS and 43 adults with HFA. No significant difference was observed on EQ score between groups, while adults with AS performed significantly better on the Eyes Test than those with HFA. This suggests that adults with HFA may need more support, particularly in mentalizing and complex emotion recognition, and raises questions about the existence of subgroups within autism spectrum conditions

The genomic evolution of human prostate cancer.

Prostate cancers are highly prevalent in the developed world, with inheritable risk contributing appreciably to tumour development. Genomic heterogeneity within individual prostate glands and between patients derives predominantly from structural variants and copy-number aberrations. Subtypes of prostate cancers are being delineated through the increasing use of next-generation sequencing, but these subtypes are yet to be used to guide the prognosis or therapeutic strategy. Herein, we review our current knowledge of the mutational landscape of human prostate cancer, describing what is known of the common mutations underpinning its development. We evaluate recurrent prostate-specific mutations prior to discussing the mutational events that are shared both in prostate cancer and across multiple cancer types. From these data, we construct a putative overview of the genomic evolution of human prostate cancer

Between feminism and anorexia: An autoethnography

Critical feminist work on eating disorders has grown substantially since its establishment in the 1980s, and has increasingly incorporated the use of anorexic stories, voices and experiences. Yet rarely do such accounts offer the anorexic a space to respond to the now established feminist conceptions of the problem which structure the books or articles in which they appear. Anorexic, or recovered anorexic, voices are used by the researcher to interpret the role played by gender, even whilst the subjects are invited to respond to and critique, medical and popular discourses on the disorder. This lack of dialogue is all the more striking in the context of the feminist aim to fight ‘back against the tendency to silence anorexic women’s’ own interpretations of their starving, treatment and construction (Saukko, 2008: 34). As someone who suffered from anorexia for 20 years, this article offers an autoethnographic account of my experience of encountering the feminist literature on anorexia in a bid to speak back, or enter into a dialogue between feminist politics and eating disorder experience